Some Recently Read Material

Sunday, August 17, 2014

The Bizarre Economic Theory Behind US Foreign Policy

I just finished reading the article in The Atlantic written by Jeffrey Goldberg where he talks with Hillary Clinton about Foreign Policy.

The article for the most part has nothing interesting to add to anyone's understanding of US foreign policy if said person takes time to keep up on what is going on around the world and has a basic understanding of recent history.  I don't even know why the article got so much hype.  The headline that drew me to the article was from another media source which claimed Ms. Clinton was critical of President Obama's foreign policy.  In fact she simply suggested there were factions, including apparently herself, that felt the Obama should have been more proactive and directly engaging in helping anti Syrian protesters turned militants to overthrow Assad.  Big deal.  If you read the whole article you will see that there is no guarantee that this would have resulted in any better outcome and
the US policies towards Libya are cited as evident of such.  It is also normal in any administration to have issues that draw strong feelings on both sides and an administration / leader has to make a decision some will not like and they are free to resign in protest.

For me, the most striking statement made by Ms. Clinton hits a very strong nerve in my understanding of the ignorance of one aspect of US foreign policy (and that of many other governments around the world who pump boatloads of humanitarian aid into developing nations) that has hijacked "group think" amongst most of the international organizations that are financed and overseen by "The Western Powers" ie; the US and Europe, and that statement is:
You can’t grow your GDP without opening the doors to full participation of women and girls in the formal economy.
I will not attempt to argue the merits of this statement other then to say, having lived in Washington, DC for some time and being privy to the occasional presentation / discussion / conversation on the topic of foreign aid and development of underdeveloped countries, I have seen the progression and metastization of this idea over some time.  I have often questioned its merits.  I have seen where the "research" on the issue comes from and read many articles that profess it's validity.  However, it is also clear the the statement is completely false if taken in the context of what it is supposedly implies: that "full participation", meaning the education and workforce participation of women vs woman's traditional participation in the "economy", i.e.; not through education and workforce participation, which was predominant through the middle of the 20th century in the same "western" nations that now profess this role, "must" be redefined to fit the "group think" of the global powers that control and shape "development" aid around the world.   Think about this: Was there not incredible economic growth in Western Nations between 1790 and 1860 or between 1860 to 1930?  What was the "full participation of women and girls in the formal economy" then?

What I am going to do is call a spade a spade and stick my neck out and say something that may offend many people and I really don't give a damn because I strongly believe the current thinking on the subject in the West does more to feed distrust and push-back against the West then any other single foreign policy issue on the international agenda.  The ideology that backs the statement Ms. Clinton made is an ideology designed specifically to attack a core value of what defines Muslim Identity around the world.  The overriding emphasis on this "full participation of women" ideology is the most powerful public policy agenda against Islam and the most powerful rallying call to the populations of nations who are called upon to submit their young people to war against people who call Islam their religion.

I am not going to say that the emergence and success of something like "micro-lending" around the world, which goes primarily to women, and assumes that these women's economic success are at the core of pulling people and hence nations out of poverty, does not have merit.  But where is the world's poverty index in the 20 odd years of this phenomenon?  It is amazing how many "economic" studies still use $1 or $1.25 as some kind of base number to measure poverty!  They also use 1990 as a base year... You do the math.  How many dollars does it take to equate to the real purchasing power of $1.25 in 2014 relative to 1990?  Try $2.25, almost double. Take even a smaller increase in this number to $2 and you get:
In all, 2.4 billion people lived on less than US $2 a day in 2010, the average poverty line in developing countries and another common measurement of deep deprivation. That is only a slight decline from 2.59 billion in 1981.
In the US alone the poverty rate has doubled in near urban suburbs and gone up 50% in cities since 2000 according to this Bloomberg article just released.  The US has a "full" participation of women in it's economy today, not entirely by choice, but also out of the need to survive as the vast majority of Americans do not have access to the jobs of the elite 30% or so of the nation's population who have the education and access to high paying jobs. Besides, it only takes a decade of completely reckless Western financial markets that have essentially turned the global economic system into one large gambling casino functioning much more like its 1914 then 2014, to completely reverse ALL of the International efforts to eradicate poverty over the same time.  You know how easy it is to wipe out 20 years of economic "progress".  The people who play in this casino have NO interest in their repercussions on the world's population. That is not what makes them tick.  How large the participation of women in a given economic system is moot when taking this into consideration.

So the next time you hear some "do good", well educated (well indoctrinated) person stand up and try to make a case that "You can’t grow your GDP without opening the doors to full participation of women and girls in the formal economy.", ask them where that idea ever came from in the first place.  They will not be able to answer you in historical terms, only in the propaganda they have been fed over the last couple of decades, those same decades where "we" (the West) have been in an ever growing global war against Islam and the same two decades where in our world the "labor force participation (i.e.; economic) of women and girls" has long since peaked and at the same time the poverty indexes of many developed nations with this high participation rate have also increased, jobs have evaporated and the standard of living has worsened.

So show me where Ms. Clinton's statement is more beneficial then harmful in foreign policy today and show me the economic proof that historically what she claims is true.


Sunday, August 03, 2014

Americans Have Completely Lost it Or?

Just read this article in Marketwatch and am severely disappointed at what I read, hence the title of this post.

Now remember those recent debt stories like this one also in Marketwatch, or this one in the NY Times about the exploding sub-prime auto loans?  Well Americans are not stupid, they have just lost their minds.  When they are gonna get a sub-prime loan, might as damn well get the fattest vehicle on the lot!!  Hell yea, "we don't deny anybody" ads are everywhere.  If you not gonna pay anyway, might as well ride in style for 2-3 months!! 

Now the last SUV boom went from early 90's to about 2007-8 when subprime loans hit the fan the first time and gas in the US hit $4/gallon (really gallons?  WTF or where in the world is anyone still using gallons?).  That was when reality hit the debt laden Americans.  It was not just the SUV (truck charade as a passenger vehicle with a fancy new acronym and commercials of vehicles on driving on unpaved roads into the sunset, in a nation with more paved roads per-capata then anywhere else on the planet) monthly $500 for five years, but the $1,000 it takes to change the tyres or the estimated $9,000 a year cost of owning the vehicle on top of the monthly payment (including depreciation, gas and maintenance according to AAA), that really set the average debt laden American to think twice about continuing to buy them, free money or not.  Lets also not forget the crash of the debt bubble which cost millions of American jobs in the course of a few months.


Either way, I was ecstatic.  Whatever it took to make the idiot Americans who just spent some $2 Trillion dollars on two pointless wars wake the F&%^ up was just fine with me.  The SUV craze, and the most stupid thing that ever happened to the American Consumer landscape was finally over.

Unfortunately it took till 2012 for nearly every auto maker to have a decent "small car" on offer.  People actually bought them.  Unfortunately according to the articles I just read, those sales peaked just last year.  When I was back in the US visiting this spring the only small car on the TV I can remember being marketed hard was the Mini.  Every other ad I can remember was for Trucks / SUV's again, climbing mountains with no paved roads, bringing families to camping sites or the beach with their Truck/SUV filled with Chinese plastic BS, not carousing suburban mall parking lots where 99% of them end up.  It's working.  Now the Truck/SUV is topping sales again!  What is up with that?  Gas gas prices are only $.50 from their all time high, averaging $3.50 / gallon nationwide?  

It is the Sub-Prime Loan.  Cheap easy money going to those who are MOST affected by the millions in marketing dollars poured into mass media also happen to be those most likely to max out what they can spend, giving into the unscrupulous and money driven dealers and sales people who know how lucrative it is to make that high interest loan and fat paycheck when those loans are sold to the Wall Street Vultures who will repack them and strip them and sell derivatives on or against them... You know the drill.

Have Americans completely lost it?  Damn right they have! There are like three active wars in the Mid east now not to mention the complete destabilization of Libya and Egypt and most of N. Africa is in some kind of conflict with rebels.  Ukraine is at war with very large implications.  Anything could spark a major oil price hike.  Are the US people completely ignorant of these things?  Absolutely.  That gas could be $5-$6 in the next 2 years?   Yes. That the US fund to build roads / highways / etc. is bankrupt and has to be bailed out right now by legislation / budget items?  Damn right!  That several states are being forced to increase their gas taxes and the Fed might do it as well?  Yes, Yes Yes...  It's better than an orgasm, it's a perfect storm brewing.  Americans are prone to mass suicide in more ways then any culture / experimental nation in the course of history. 

I hated SUV (living room trucks) since the day the first one was made.  I hoped they were going to be a footnote one day.  Guess I am wrong on that one.  There is a saying about markets:  "Markets can remain irrational longer than one can remain solvent." or something to that effect.  Well it seems Americans can remain Completely Insane much longer than any rational person would think they could get their S%&^ back together again.


I guess all the hormones and chemicals and GMO fat and sugar laden nutrient deficient food has managed to not only double their body size, but their ignorance as well.