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Tuesday, December 15, 2009

Banks Paying Back What?

I have been reading about the banks "paying back TARP" and "regaining their freedom" from the Government reigns for some days now with disdain for what is being "sold" to us by the media as a "payback" of money injected into the banks during the "crises" in 2008.

There is still a major crisis. The pittances the banks are paying back are only part of the total sum of what the Fed / Government has done and is still doing to back these institutions. They should remain under supervision for everything they do and their management should be under salary caps. If they don't like it they should all go to work with hedge funds, the unwieldy banking institutions they run broken apart with their retail, banking, insurance operations etc. regulated and their trading arms closed or spun off to the pigs in the Hedge Fund industry (which should be regulated or shut down as well but for now this is highly unlikely).

I would like to remind you that besides the deregulation of banking in 1999 which was done to rubber stamp the mega Citycorp merger with Travelers our legislative body also deregulated leverage rules for leverage "not using bank deposits" as stated in a January 2009 Time Magazine article:

Regulators have long had a lower capital requirement on loans that are not backed by deposits. But in 2004, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) removed rules that capped leverage at 15 to 1 for investment-banking firms like Goldman Sachs. That allowed the firms to vastly expand their lending activities without raising a single new dollar of capital. One big backer of the rule change was reportedly former Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, who was then Goldman's CEO. By that time, the regulatory separation between investment banks and traditional banks had long since been removed, so traditional banks such as Citigroup and Bank of America shifted more and more of their lending operations to their investment-banking divisions, and leverage took off. By the end of 2007, many banks were lending $30 for every dollar they had in the vault. "Changing the net-capital rule was an unfortunate misjudgment by the SEC," says former SEC official Lee Pickard. "It's one of the leading contributors to the current financial crisis." (See who else is to blame.)


Now what is interesting is the "not raising a single dollar of capital" part. They could just go about doubling down on leverage. The "banking" industry had convinced our impotent and incompetent legislators as well as the idiot running the Fed at the time, Greenspan, that banks had installed sophisticated "risk management" tools that would allow them to manage this escalated leverage. I remember reading with amazement the monthly or quarterly updates by "investment banks" on Wall Street on how much capital they could "loose" or was “at risk” in a single day given information they had on hand and risk management practices in place. The numbers had grown to the hundreds of millions of dollars in some cases. These were "day" trading risks.

Back to the point, the Fed agreed not only to the injection of cash into the large money center banks in 2008 (agreed with the Treasury) but also to accept all kinds of before unheard of collateral against borrowings from the Fed. In addition the Fed, in bailing out some institutions like City, Bear Sterns, BoA and AIG agreed to assume hundreds of billions of dollars in losses on "assets" removed from their books that were "locked up" in the credit crises. These institutions alone account for nearly $500 Billion in "guarantees" against bad debts / assets on their books (well off books as well for technical / accounting purposes). Plus there is another $300 Billion PLUS that has been borrowed by financial institutions from the markets with implicit guarantees under the Temporary Liquidity Guarantee Program.

In addition the Fed just started it's $1.8 Trillion program to "become" the commercial paper industry, a Trillion and a half has been allocated to buy mortgages from the banks and GSE's, another Trillion program to buy consumer loan-backed securities called TALF, and $300 Billion in outright "injections" by the fed done through bond purchases from the banks.

As I write this, Goldman still has about $20 Billion on it's books it borrowed under TLGP so as far as I am concerned any PIG Institution that still has guaranteed money on it's books is the same as having the money injected directly. They were able to borrow at ridiculously low rates by having the direct guarantee of the government, hence they should be highly regulated until they are COMPLETELY CLEAN of any support by the government.

Oh, well that is not really possible now is it? The government "being" the mortgage market, consumer credit market, commercial backed mortgage market, commercial paper market etc. In other words, none of these intuitions could even continue to function under anything like "normal" market conditions without the FED putting about $7 Trillion in support out there. You can see some of the numbers here.

So, basically, I can say “The Hell with them all”. They so totally ruined the financial system they should not be “free” to do anything without heavy government regulation until this entire mess is cleaned up. So where are the Chiefs going to go if the entire finance industry is heavily regulated? Guess they will just have to accept “government” salaries like doctors in a government health plan until they can learn to “walk” on their own again. Alternatively they could all go to the hedge fund industry until some government with a spine shuts that worthless unregulated industry down completely.

For a little comedy check out this 12 part short video series on the Fed.

For very extensive analysis of Fed workings through the crises check this out.

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