Little Video on Crises

I got this link from a friend today who is in the financial world as a career. It is a cartoon explaining the credit crises in part. Here it is

This one is not bad. I have seen worse. They missed one of the key elements in the whole thing and what actually has exasperated the problem. That is the investors actually used his earlier example of leverage to buy the CDO's, not just mortgages, to increase their returns. They did this by borrowing from the very banks that were selling them the CDO's and when the value of the CDO falls, the "investors" have to put up more collateral to keep their thin slice of equity in the game. The problem arises when they cannot any longer borrow or renew already borrowed money (usually short term borrowings to buy long term investments) and they all try to sell the CDO's at the same time creating a crash in the market which by the way was completely non transparent, hence the exorbitant profits made selling the junk.

Secondly, they failed to demonstrate how the agencies that gave ratings screwed up.

Third, they failed to demonstrate the role of "insurance" (CDS's) have played in the crises and caused bankruptcies.

Fourth, they fail to demonstrate the way Wall Street made most of their profits by not only buying mortgages but actually buying mortgage companies so they made money all the way up the food chain from the origination to the credit derivative and insurance products on the debt (I think there are at LEAST 5 layers of profit on each loan)

Fifth, they fail to demonstrate how all of this "mortgage" based debt was purchased by money market and other short term investment funds even though they were technically long term debt and how when the market for these products dried up we had near collapse of several money market funds and how the money market funds provided liquidity to the rest of the consumer credit cycle and how this collapse has effected "main street".

Sixth they failed to demonstrate how banks got into the game by creating Structured Investment Vehicles to buy mortgages off of themselves so they could make money off of themselves instead of lending it to outside investors and how this was nothing more than Enron financing (off balance sheet) that they had ultimately to bring back on balance sheets basically making them insolvent as the funds they absorbed.

I could go on and on and on. These are all not that difficult to insert in here. No cartoon video I have seen does more than a 25% job explaining any of this but at least this one gets the first part right and makes some simple concepts visual for people.

Perhaps they could go into the Trillions of dollars borrowed short term by private equity to consume ever more companies with the same debt and leverage ratios. They will be imploding as their companies fail to generate the cash flow in this weak economy to pay back the debts they took out. Some of these companies employ north of 200,000 people with a mix of companies. One of the key reasons I am still a MAJOR bear on the stock market and think after a crazy near term fall then bounce we will have a blood bath going into late spring and beyond, is these private equity guys have been off the radar but when there is a major collapse (like Cerberus from the Chrysler fiasco) of a private equity fund, the market will really tank.