I ran across this article today: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-08-21/inside-the-global-hunt-for-a-better-way-to-measure-the-economy
It is interesting that over just the last 30 days or so there is a
"buzz" around the financial community about the validity and usefulness
of GDP in measuring output and of course this is another way for those
who believe the Central Banks desperately need to "normalize" interest
rates to get their point across.
Aside of the special interest's motivations, three of my potential
thesis are being reflected in this trend, 1) I believe all measures of
GDP need to be drastically revamped as traditional measures of
collecting the data are vastly outdated and 2) employment numbers and
productivity need drastic new looks as the dramatic declines in labor
participation in the US are not consistent with consumer purchasing
power / stats and 3) Economist need to broaden their measures of
productivity in the new economy of Uber's and Air BnB's of the world and
understand that productivity is no longer a measure of just "producers"
productivity, but that now, all assets in the economy, need to be
factored in. People are renting their houses, cars, labor etc. in
disruptive ways never before done and till now not accurately measured
in data that are influencing the central banks policies. These are all
tied together.
This is the first article I have seen mentioning, albeit not
convincingly or with any detail, some of the factors I believe need to
be addressed. So I thought I would share :-)
My latest theory is a little less tangible. It has to do with what
happens when Economist / Central Bankers themselves become victims of a
kind of a perpetual lack of ability to understand they to can be
influenced by "behavior patterns" and "psychological factors" so often
measured by Economist on consumer behavior and their "behavior patterns"
can lead to irrational decision making. I believe they were so spooked
by the global financial crises / credit freeze in 2008/9 they can no
longer see clearly. No matter what happens in the economy, they can
find 2-3 "global" trends that continue to drive their thinking in a
perpetual crises mindset. They simply no longer see clearly. They have
completely lost faith in the "free market" model. They think more and
more like the Chinese, where understanding of market fundamentals is
translated by central planners to direct intervention in an attempt to
"create" these fundamentals through "force" vs understanding that all
economic theory comes from human behavior and that this behavior creates
economies that in turn create observable market forces that become that
theory one can study and write about. There is no way to reverse this
and force it to happen without allowing markets to determine a given
outcome and or understanding markets will be severely disrupted if one
attempts to do so.
To ignore economic fundamentals and market forces is leading us to the
point where the destructiveness of Central Bank policies are parallel to
the kind of problems that happen during traditional bubble psychology,
where all "investors" act irrationally until the entire thing
collapses. In summary, the global mind think of Central Banks /
Traditional Economic theorists is stuck in crises mode and their actions
are leading the entire global financial system to a huge cliff. It's
time for them to look in the mirror and understand where they are headed
before it's to late.
Just a small thought, and to think Market Psychology and Consumer
Behavior are my two least favorite areas in Economics :-)
Sunday, August 21, 2016
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