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Sunday, August 21, 2016

Central Banks Perpetual Crises Mindset

I ran across this article today: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-08-21/inside-the-global-hunt-for-a-better-way-to-measure-the-economy

It is interesting that over just the last 30 days or so there is a "buzz" around the financial community about the validity and usefulness of GDP in measuring output and of course this is another way for those who believe the Central Banks desperately need to "normalize" interest rates to get their point across.

Aside of the special interest's motivations, three of my potential thesis are being reflected in this trend, 1) I believe all measures of GDP need to be drastically revamped as traditional measures of collecting the data are vastly outdated and 2) employment numbers and productivity need drastic new looks as the dramatic declines in labor participation in the US are not consistent with consumer purchasing power / stats and 3) Economist need to broaden their measures of productivity in the new economy of Uber's and Air BnB's of the world and understand that productivity is no longer a measure of just "producers" productivity, but that now, all assets in the economy, need to be factored in.  People are renting their houses, cars, labor etc. in disruptive ways never before done and till now not accurately measured in data that are influencing the central banks policies.  These are all tied together.

This is the first article I have seen mentioning, albeit not convincingly or with any detail, some of the factors I believe need to be addressed.   So I thought I would share :-)

My latest theory is a little less tangible.  It has to do with what happens when Economist / Central Bankers themselves become victims of a kind of a perpetual lack of ability to understand they to can be influenced by "behavior patterns" and "psychological factors" so often measured by Economist on consumer behavior and their "behavior patterns" can lead to irrational decision making.  I believe they were so spooked by the global financial crises / credit freeze in 2008/9 they can no longer see clearly.  No matter what happens in the economy, they can find 2-3 "global" trends that continue to drive their thinking in a perpetual crises mindset. They simply no longer see clearly.  They have completely lost faith in the "free market" model.  They think more and more like the Chinese, where understanding of market fundamentals is translated by central planners to direct intervention in an attempt to "create" these fundamentals through "force" vs understanding that all economic theory comes from human behavior and that this behavior creates economies that in turn create observable market forces that become that theory one can study and write about.  There is no way to reverse this and force it to happen without allowing markets to determine a given outcome and or understanding markets will be severely disrupted if one attempts to do so.

To ignore economic fundamentals and market forces is leading us to the point where the destructiveness of Central Bank policies are parallel to the kind of problems that happen during traditional bubble psychology, where all "investors" act irrationally until the entire thing collapses.  In summary, the global mind think of Central Banks / Traditional Economic theorists is stuck in crises mode and their actions are leading the entire global financial system to a huge cliff.  It's time for them to look in the mirror and understand where they are headed before it's to late.

Just a small thought, and to think Market Psychology and Consumer Behavior are my two least favorite areas in Economics :-)

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