Bailout Goldman

The more I think about the bail out of firms like Goldman Sachs I really get fired up. Goldman is / was a gambling firm, nothing more, nothing less. They did business with the biggest gamblers out there, hedge funds, private equity, off balance sheet firms of banks and individual investor / speculators.

We bailed them out. They were not a regulated bank / financial firm. The Treasury had no right to bail them out with taxpayer money, or Morgan Stanley or any other unregulated entity.

The fact that the Treasury and Fed rushed through applications to make these firms "regulated banks" infuriates me. This was a complete hijack of sensible regulations and laws in place to define what firm is a regulated entity that has to conform to routine inspections and a certain legal framework and those that can gamble at will with money from people who wish to be involved in their conduct.

As far as I am concerned, the folks in Washington who orchestrated the bail out of unregulated financial institutions and who are now making over a trillion dollars of taxpayer money available to unregulated industries to buy debt should all be indicted and tried for wrong doing.

I am very firm on this opinion. In addition, I read yesterday in the WSJ about the way banks are treating business lines of credit. It appears no only have hedge funds and unregulated (now regulated) gambling institutions have figured out how to make a killing on CDS products but now the banks are using the CDS market pricing of institutional debt as a guide on pricing that debt. From article:

Now, lenders are cutting the length of many commitments to less than a year. They are charging higher fees for the lines of credit, known as revolvers. And instead of promising an interest rate determined mainly by the company's credit rating, banks will now charge more if the cost of insuring the company's debt against default is higher.

I feel this is very dangerous. Although the traditional credit rating agencies completely failed to do their job correctly for the last 5+ years with respect to the secondary market for various types of debt and companies who engaged in selling various secondary products, to resort to making credit available and at what price based on what speculators are paying and or charging for credit default products is very dangerous and will lead to very distorted pricing and benefit money lenders and speculators at the cost to real companies that create real products and employ people in industries that ad real economic output to our GDP (unlike the financial products / debt "industry")

The time has come to fire the Washington insiders, tell congress to get a spine and regulate the CDS and other derivative markets, pull the cash out from the unregulated firms who were fast tracked into becoming "regulated" entities and force them to fend for themselves. All this BS about "to big to fail" is baloney. The sooner these financial companies who have come to dominate our economy through debt products are gone the better for the long term health of our economy.

Utter Insanity in Treasury Plan to Aid Homeowners

I could not believe my eyes when I read this article on the evening of the 28th of April on Bloomberg.
In my life and yours there will never be another program like this. It is the biggest payoff to the mortgage industry / banks / speculators who hold mortgage debt ever devised disguised as a "homeowner bailout".

Our government has wrapped legislation designed to benefit big business with "consumer friendly" titles for years. Why? I guess it works. People in this country live by headlines and PR spouted by the loudest paid idiot so I guess it is fitting that congress and or the White House has long ago learned to give corporate legislation a consumer friendly title and all will be fine. Shame I use "consumer" to describe the American "citizen" but that is what American citizens are, consumers and nothing more (well solders but nobody will admit that).

The insanity of the government paying $2500 to "loan servicers" to rework a loan needs no explanation. This is taxpayer money going to help "homeowners" refinance their mortgage. Needless to say, "homeowners" (debtors) in this country already get the biggest damn government subsidy on the planet, living "rent free" as they write off the "interest" (majority of mortgage cost for the bulk of the loan) from their income on their taxes. Secondly, the spoiled, spoon fed, suburban raised baby boomers, were given the biggest "gift" in the history of tax giveaways under the Clinton administration (yea Clinton not Bush) with a $250,000 tax exemption on the sale of a primary residence with the only stipulation that one have lived in the property for 2 of the last 5 years.

So, "homeowners" live rent free, get to keep $250,000 in cap gains when they sell their home and NOW, they get a $2500 benefit from the mortgage company that refinances their tax free loan PLUS mortgage servicers (the people who collect the mortgage payment each month, first mortgages only) can get $4500 over three years if the loan stays on their books that long PLUS the BORROWER or the person refinancing their loan gets $5000 over five years as an "incentive" to pay their mortgage! An "incentive" to pay their mortgage? This money goes directly to towards reducing their principal balance.

Help me out here. Please? What in the hell is on the minds of the folks at the Treasury? I will tell you. Their G** D*** buddies! That is what is on their minds. They created the house of cards; this "economy" based on Usury, which has been advised against by every religion, every economic textbook of any useful significance and anybody with any common sense. We don't produce anything anymore so we have to base our economy on something right?

We cannot build tangible products in this country any longer at anywhere near the rate to maintain employment because we have dumbed down our economic expectations and wages as much as humanly possible to fatten the real "tax" in this country, huge profit margins on national oligopolistic business that control the sale and distribution of over 50% of the value of goods and services sold in this country, so we create an economy engineered by mathematicians with computer models that make it possible for one loan to one person to generate income and profits 5 different ways. Then when this pathetic, manipulated, unregulated house of cards comes crashing down we look to Washington (taxpayers) to finance the bail out?

I am absolutely disgusted by this entire thing and economically speaking, the Fed / Treasury / Government has borrowed, guaranteed, bought, lent and backed enough of the "economy" to last till about October 2009. After that, the entire thing comes crashing down big time. Get out now!

For more comical reading try this (subscription may be requred)

Credit Default Swaps on US Government Debt

OK, correct me if I am wrong but the US currently has over $7 Trillion in debt floating around out there. Now, those are no small potatoes.

Correct me also if I am wrong, but our current financial mess, including the bailout of AIG, greatly owes it’s thanks to the CDS market.

A quick Wikipedia definition is in order here:

A credit default swap (CDS) is a swap contract in which the buyer of the CDS makes a series of payments to the seller and, in exchange, receives a payoff if a credit instrument - typically a bond or loan - goes into default (fails to pay). Less commonly, the credit event that triggers the payoff can be a company undergoing restructuring, bankruptcy or even just having its credit rating downgraded. Credit Default Swaps can be bought by any (relatively sophisticated) investor; it is not necessary for the buyer to own the underlying credit instrument.

Now can someone explain to me exactly WHO has the ability to guarantee or pay off $10 Million in US Government debt (the usual denomination for a CDS) multiplied by millions if the US Government actually defaulted on it’s debt?

Isn’t this what got us into much of the mess we are in? Idiots actually sold Credit Default Swap contracts on debt securities backed by garbage mortgages, car loans, credit card loans, personal loans, loans for leveraged buyout firms, loans to hedge funds and others taken out to buy yet more debt securities in a kind of vicious circle / pyramid scheme, loans issues by banks to firms they created to buy their own garbage securities so they would not exist on their over-leveraged balance sheets…

Come on now. Help me out. Why in the Hell hasn’t the CDS market been shut down? I am completely baffled by the fact that anyone is crazy enough to issue, buy or trade CDS’s right now since it has become painfully clear that the sellers of the shit have for years not had the collateral to back their issuance and this has been proven over and over again. These are “insurance” products that require no regulated capital to guarantee payment in case the debt they are written against actually defaults.

So why is this stuff floating around guaranteeing US Government debt? And why in the HELL is Geithner calling on the unregulated Hedge Fund industry to take $1 Trillion in new government money to buy more garbage debt from the defunct credit markets? Help me out here? I read an article this week that claimed the price of insuring $10 Million in US Debt had risen to $90,000 per year. Brilliant. Now who in the hell is going to pay the $10 Million if or when the US Government defaults? Isn’t the idea that there ended up layers of these “insurance” products valued at something like $70 Trillion that contributed greatly to the “credit crises” we now face? The idiots who originated the “insurance” products bankrupt their companies and to this day, the US Government is bailing out institutions like AIG with tax payer money so they can continue shoveling the cash to the counterparties of these instruments.

On top of that, the firms and the government agencies involved in the bailouts refuse to tell us who those counterparties are or why they don’t just force a settlement of these contracts and for all parties to take their losses and walk. Instead, our future tax dollars (cause none of this is today’s money, it is all being borrowed for us to pay tomorrow) are going directly into the coffers of God knows whose buddies and they are getting downright rich off of it.

I have completely had it. Our legislators are ignorant impotent pushovers. The people running the treasury are bailing out their buddies and the Fed is going to go bankrupt trying to “be” the credit market. The dollar, or the confidence in it, is in real long-term trouble. What in the hell is going on here?

If the Chinese were worried about US Government debt a year ago they should have bought ALL the CDS’s people were ignorant enough to write. Hell they could have bought US Government protection for $40,000 per $10 Million and be cashing out here at over 100% profit on the CDS contracts alone not to mention still collecting interest on the underlying debt.

Have I said enough? Shut down the CDS markets. Force settlements of all outstanding contracts and regulate the hedge fund industry TODAY.

Deals Dry Up... No Recovery in Sight

I have done my basic math and based on most of what I have learned all current government attempts to rescue the financial markets will have run their course by around April 2009. The interesting thing about the new Treasury plan is the move from a couple billion dollars of debt market support to a Trillion dollars in debt market support.

Given that in a healthy debt market about $50 billion a month in various consumer debt offerings would be needed, I really don't know how the financial system has avoided complete implosion to this date because this market is virtually non existent at the moment. The caveat in the Trillion dollar debt market plan is this also includes mortgage backed securities leaving much to other areas of consumer debt issuance.

The inquires by various senators holding up loan documents and lines of credit by borrowers in their respective jurisdictions asking banking CEO's why their banks have called loans and refused to extend terms to borrowers who are making payments on time are a clear indication of the stress financial firms are facing to shrink their balance sheets in the face of being unable to gain access to capital.

Interestingly enough this quote from a Marketwatch article shows that of the top 10 debt offerings in 2009 all have been by banks except one.

If banks aren't lending, you can bet that companies will be turning to the bond market. They are, but they're not exactly driving the market's 10% increase so far this year. Of the top 10 debt deals this year only one, a $10 billion offering by General Electric Co. GE, was not issued by a bank, the government or a government-backed entity such as Fannie Mae FNM.

The article does not go on to show how many of those bank debt offerings were also backed by the FDIC under the Treasury plan announced back in October 2008. Details of this part of the plan are as follows:

FDIC GUARANTEE PLAN

* The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, the government agency which traditionally guarantees deposits at banks, will guarantee senior unsecured debt issued by U.S-regulated banks, thrifts and other depository institutions issued before June 30, 2009, including promissory notes, commercial paper, inter-bank funding and any unsecured portion of secured debt. This must not exceed 125 percent of debt outstanding on Sept. 30, 2008.

* This debt would be full protected in the event that the issuing institution subsequently fails, or its holding company files for bankruptcy. Coverage would be limited until June 30, 2012, even if the debt's maturity exceeds that date.

* The FDIC will guarantee all funds in non-interest-bearing transaction deposit accounts held by FDIC-insured banks until December 31, 2009. These are mainly payment processing accounts, such as payroll accounts used by businesses.

* Fees for these guarantees would not rely on taxpayer funding. They would be paid by participating banks that would pay a 75 basis-point fee to protect their new debt issues and a 10 basis-point surcharge for deposits not otherwise covered by the existing deposit insurance limit of $250,000.

All FDIC-insured institutions will be covered under the program for the first 30 days without any costs. After this initial period, banks not wishing to continue their participation will have to opt out or be assessed for future guarantees.

(Obtained from nice Reuters Treasury plan article Here)

As I have mentioned many times before, having the government backing debt virtually unconditionally here for regulated banks they are saying, "We are the government and we have invested directly in banks and we do not want to loose our investment so we are allowing the banks to borrow money from the market with our backing."

This is all good and well if you seriously think the government should become the debt market but think of what has happened. The debt markets have further seized up for any institution not backed by the government. I mean, "investors" are looking out the window and seeing a falling economy and thinking, "If I am going to buy debt, why should I buy anything not backed by the government?"

In fact all this government meddling in the debt markets is getting way out of hand. I believe for all the "good" intentions of the Fed and Treasury to "support" a non existent market, they are creating serious traditional economic imbalances that will delay a recovery in the market, exaggerate the need for additional capital support by financial institutions and make it virtually impossible for non-financial institutions to borrow money on acceptable terms.

As for that $1 Trillion in debt support, it may buy us another 6 months. Will the market recover by then? Time will tell. I said many times early in this crises, the government does NOT have the resources to forestall this crises and frankly the lax regulation and poor oversight of the financial markets since laws created in the 1930's were overturned over the last decade leaves little to no options to stop the bleeding in our economy. The beast had become to large and fat to handle.